Radar Rainfall · Rain-Fed Creeks

Creek Watch

These Ozark creeks only have enough water after real rain, and most have no gauge at all. So we watch NOAA weather radar over each creek's actual watershed and estimate when a float window opens. Estimates, not gauge readings: always confirm locally before you drive.

Watershed rainfall · updated every 2 hours loading…
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How Creek Watch works

Every couple of hours we pull NOAA's MRMS radar rainfall grid (the same data the National Weather Service uses) and average it over each creek's actual upstream watershed: the USGS-delineated drainage that feeds the float section. Rain that lands in the watershed becomes creek water; rain ten miles outside it doesn't. We also account for how dry the ground is: a parched creek bed in August shrugs off an inch of rain that would have the same creek flashing in April.

Each card also shows forecast rain over the watershed for the next one to three days (Open-Meteo). On the progress bar it appears as a faint striped extension: solid is rain that has fallen, stripes are what the forecast could add if it lands. Treat it as a heads-up for planning. Forecasts of Ozark thunderstorms miss often, so a creek's status only ever counts rain that has actually fallen.

Quiet Not enough recent rain. Creek is likely low. The usual state.
Watch Meaningful rain on the watershed, getting close to what this creek needs.
Rising Enough rain has landed that the creek is likely coming up. Stay off while it rises. The window usually opens as it crests and starts to fall.
Prime soon Rain landed and the creek's own gauge is already responding. A float window is likely opening.
Too high Far past the trigger. Flash-flood territory. Do not float.

Why estimates?

Only two of these creeks have working USGS flow gauges. The rest have none, including Poke Bayou, where a commercial outfitter runs floats all season. Radar rainfall over the watershed is the most honest signal available. Where a gauge exists we show its live flow too.

Flash creeks are not rivers

A rain-fed creek can rise several feet in hours and drop out within a day or two. Never launch on a rising creek, keep an eye upstream, and remember low-water crossings flood first. If you're new to creek floating, go with someone who isn't, or book with a local outfitter.

Creek Watch is experimental. Rain thresholds are early estimates we're still calibrating against real events, radar can misjudge rainfall, and conditions change fast. Use this page as a heads-up, not a green light; you are responsible for judging safe water. Radar: NOAA MRMS · Watersheds: USGS NLDI · Forecast: Open-Meteo · Gauges: USGS.